DHSS released the first draft of rules on how to obtain a medical marijuana ID card to possess and/or grow weed. Megan Bridgeman, USA TODAY Network
On election night in November, a key Amendment 2 backer at a party in downtown Springfield hailed medical marijuana’s Missouri victory as a win for “200,000 patients” — the number of sick people that proponents estimated would benefit from access to medical cannabis.
In a press conference two days later, backers said they modeled Amendment 2 on marijuana law in states where about 2 percent of residents had qualifying patient cards for cannabis used as treatment. (Missouri has 6.1 million people, the census estimated last year.)
But a new University of Missouri-Columbia economic study projects that Missouri will have just 26,000 qualifying marijuana patients by 2022 — less than one-half of one percent of the population. The study was posted to the state medical marijuana website Friday.
The independent study — “intended to assist” state officials as they set up a medical marijuana framework that must be in place by 2020 — also projects that Missouri will need 115 to 132 dispensaries by 2022. The study authors wrote that they used data from Washington state and Colorado to make a projection “with 66 percent confidence.”
Working with data from four states, the study estimates Missouri will need to supply the new system by growing 5,000 to 7,000 pounds of marijuana next year.
Based on grower activity in Colorado, the study authors say Missouri will need 24 to 29 cultivators in 2022.
All of these numbers are smaller than the ones mandated by Amendment 2, which requires state officials to license at least 192 dispensaries, 60 cultivation operations, 86 infused product manufacturing licenses and two product-testing facilities by Dec. 31.
Despite the new study, “the Constitution is clear” that those minimums will be implemented, the Department of Health and Senior Services said in a news release early Monday.
The study’s chief author, Mizzou economics professor Joseph Haslag, acknowledged the challenges that come with making these types of predictions.
“The greatest challenge is just what other states put out there in terms of the quality of data that researchers can use,” Haslag said.
“I took a stab at it, and there’s a little bit of arbitrariness to it,” he added, noting that 33 American states (along with the District of Columbia) have added medical marijuana laws in three “waves” of history.
California led the pack in 1996.
A second wave of 12 states added medical marijuana from 2008 to 2015.
The third wave, made up of eleven states including Missouri, got started in 2015.
Those waves of history mean that observers must rely on widely varying experiences, and methods of collecting data, to study how much marijuana is grown, how many people are authorized to buy it for medical treatment, and how much marijuana they use for treatment.
“Even at the tail end of the second wave, the data’s just not there,” Haslag said.
He said he used the best information available to create predictive mathematical equations based on observable trends.
“The fraction of a state’s population who are (medical marijuana) cardholders tends to increase in the first five years, then plateaus,” he said.
Sometimes, the number of medical marijuana cardholders levels off because a state moves to allow full adult-use, or recreational marijuana. Other times, Haslag said, the cardholder count just seems to stabilize at a long-term “steady state.”
Jack Cardetti, spokesman for the Missouri Medical Cannabis Trade Association, or MoCannTrade, praised some aspects of the study and critiqued others. He said the study lacked enough data from years following 2015.
“Four years in medical marijuana in literally a lifetime,” he said, due to rapid changes in law around the country.
Cardetti said that MoCannTrade and New Approach Missouri has consistently expected 2 to 2.5 percent of Missouri residents to apply and be certified for a medical marijuana card.
“The notion that it would take Missouri three full years to have 26,000 patients in the program is just not reality,” he said.
Oklahoma has approved 83,000 patients for medical marijuana cards as of Monday, Cardetti said, with a population just shy of 4 million residents.
The MU study authors thought of that. They state they “hesitate to adopt Oklahoma’s rapid increase in qualified patients because the medical marijuana law (there) is more liberal than Missouri’s in some key aspects.”
Cardetti said he did not believe that the wording of Missouri’s law would lead to dramatically fewer patient cards being issued in the Show-Me State, proportionally speaking, than in Oklahoma.
“As a trade association, we love to see a detailed analysis,” Cardetti told the News-Leader Monday. “There are certainly some good things and good recommendations here.”
Haslag and his co-authors said their “chief recommendation” is that state officials monitor cannabis sales with a “real-time” reporting mechanism to track medical marijuana prices and quantities sold.
A real-time reporting system would be “critical,” they wrote, so that regulators can limit medical marijuana from the legal system from slipping into the illegal market.
Data shows that this may be happening elsewhere. In Washington state, comparing the number of certified marijuana patients with the amount of cannabis legally sold in the state — using data from a survey, not a hard count — indicates “the typical medical marijuana patient” goes through an eye-reddening 7.55 pounds per year. (That’s 2.32 ounces of weed per week. Illegal street deals typically entail an eighth- or a quarter-ounce per transaction.)
“The signs are encouraging that diversion to illegal markets can be minimized,” the study authors said.
Cardetti and Haslag said in separate interviews that they believe Missouri officials are working hard to avoid as many missteps as possible as they implement Amendment 2 voters’ wishes.
“Is it going to be perfect?” Haslag said. “No, it’s probably not going to be perfect. But I think they’re giving it a lot of thought.”
Lisa Cox, spokeswoman for the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, had no comment on criticisms of the study, noting that it was an independent study.
The would-be business community seemed to be taking a wait-and-see approach.
“It’s a lot to unpack,” said Desmond Morris, a Springfield entrepreneur who plans to apply for a dispensary license for his Wholesome Bud Company LLC. “There’s a lot of good stuff in this study (and) still lots to learn,” he added in a text message Monday morning.
Morris said his first impression was that he and his Springfield collaborators are “glad folks are contributing to the process” with a “thorough” market study. But like Cardetti, Morris called the estimate of patient counts “very low.”
Another Springfield-based entrepreneur who wants to get into the marijuana industry, Chris Mullis, declined to comment, saying he hadn’t finished reading the 46-page report.
MORE ON MEDICAL MARIJUANA:
- Amid rapid shifts, Springfield employers respond to medical marijuana
- Missouri posts draft rules for medical marijuana dispensaries, grow facilities and more
- FAQ: How is Missouri going to pick who gets a medical marijuana dispensary license?
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